27/01/2003

On Iraq

Deutsche Bank says Exxon is in the right place to take advantage of an Iraqi regime change.
New report.

When Deutsche Bank did its annual analysis of ExxonMobil in September last year, one of the key strengths it listed for the company was its political clout with the US Government.

"ExxonMobil’s status as the largest US oil company gives it a major political weight with the US government. As the de-facto leader of global oil negotiations on Saudi Arabian re-entry, the company may also benefit from new positions in Russia and may find itself in pole position in a changed-regime Iraq" was what leading UK oil analyst JJ Traynor said about the company.

In October, Deutsche Bank released another report, Baghdad Bazaar, which examines the prospects for the international oil industry with Iraq, under a number of different scenarios.

The StopEsso campaign was leaked the report which, essentially, says that the US oil companies won't get a look in without a regime change. However, Deutsche Bank has now threatened us with legal action if we link to the report, so we can just quote from it.

Also, last September, Deutsche Bank undertook an analysis on ExxonMobil and said the following:

Under "Strengths"

"Political clout: ExxonMobil’s status as the largest US oil company gives it a major political weight with the US government. As the de-facto leader of global oil negotiations on Saudi Arabian re-entry, the company may also benefit from new positions in Russia and may find itself in pole position in a changed-regime Iraq."

"Risks"

"Succession.
There has been no lead on the management succession issue from today’s powerful leadership team. Despite the obvious success of the Mobil merger, how nimble has the current management been in terms of ... dealing with the new environmental age?

"Brand difficulties. Greenpeace is currently pursuing ExxonMobil in a PR war that focuses on forecourt boycotts of its biggest European market, the UK. Less tangibly, but equally-troubling, Exxon seems (probably unfairly) to have the reputation of linkages with the Bush regime’s anti-Kyoto stance, and
questions the popular belief of a linkage between hydrocarbons and global warming. While the company insists that it has suffered no fiscal impact from the boycott, being handed a reputation as environmental enemy number one for such a big customer-facing business has to be considered a brand risk."

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